NEW YORK — There was an uneasy energy inside Madison Square Garden right from the drop of the puck in Game 5. And by the time the game ended, the Rangers left the ice to a smattering of boos from a frustrated and nervous fan base.
You’d never know it, but the Rangers are still up 3-2 in the series.
Advertisem*nt
The shaky vibes are understandable, though. The Carolina Hurricanes are not the Washington Capitals, some overmatched, happy-to-be-here squad with no real shot at knocking off the Presidents’ Trophy winners. The Hurricanes are legit contenders and were right there in each game even when they dropped the first three to the Rangers.
“It’s a seven-game series against a team that was three points behind us,” Rangers winger Vincent Trocheck said after the 4-1 Game 5 loss. “They had a great season. We knew it wasn’t going to be easy.”
Only four NHL teams have ever pulled off the so-called “reverse sweep,” and it seems almost impossible that a team can rip off four straight wins after dropping the first three. But now that the Hurricanes have won two, they only need to win two more. That suddenly seems a little less improbable.
Still, the Rangers remain in control of the series, with another chance to close out the Hurricanes on Thursday night in Game 6 in Raleigh. Now that both teams have shown their best, let’s break down all the reasons the Rangers should be very confident, and all the reasons the Rangers should be very concerned.
Reasons Rangers will be fine
1. The Shesterkin edge
Igor Shesterkin — “a beautiful person and a beautiful goalie,” in Evgeny Kuznetsov’s words — is perhaps the biggest trump card in this series. He can steal games, as shown in Game 2, and has had a more consistent body of work over the past four seasons than Hurricanes’ goalie Frederik Andersen.
Andersen played well in Game 5, making 20 saves in a 4-1 Hurricanes win, but the Rangers didn’t find ways to consistently test him. If they can make his life a bit more difficult in the last game or two of the series, the Shesterkin advantage should be more apparent.
There’s also the “Playoff Freddie” factor. Andersen has picked up a reputation as a liability in the postseason, and that’s not entirely fair. In 71 career playoff starts, he has a very solid .916 save percentage and has a 38-29 record. But things do tend to get a little hairier when the stakes are raised later in a series. When Andersen is facing elimination (including the last two games of this series), he has a .901 save percentage and a 5-7 record. More alarming if you’re a Carolina fan (and comforting if you’re a New York fan): Andersen is 0-4 with a putrid .856 save percentage in Game 7s. Even if the Hurricanes win Game 6, Andersen would have to come up big in a Game 7 — on the road, no less. History suggests that’s a big ask.
Advertisem*nt
2. Track record
The Rangers had only one four-game losing skid all season, and that included a shootout loss. Shootouts, of course, are fluky and don’t happen in the playoffs.
“We’ve got a lot of confidence as a group,” coach Peter Laviolette said Tuesday. “There have been games this year where we haven’t played well, and the guys responded with a much better effort the next game. There’s some history there.”
Four non-shootout losses in a row would be a first this season for New York. If the Rangers can avoid it, they’ll move on. (For the record, Carolina had four win streaks of at least four games this season, though one of them did include a shootout victory.)
3. Panarin is not prone to extended quiet stretches
Artemi Panarin, pointless in his past two games, went through a three-game scoreless drought only once this season. And he’s not the only Rangers player who could be due for a big night. Trocheck, his linemate and the team’s second-leading point-getter in the regular season, also doesn’t have a point in the past two games. That line rarely has prolonged stretches with no offense, so a breakout over the next game or two seems like a good bet.
4. Carolina’s power play still struggling
If it weren’t for special teams, the Hurricanes might be leading this series. But special teams count, and the Carolina power play — save for Brady Skjei’s game-winning goal in Game 4 — has been abysmal. The unit has one goal in 20 tries and has allowed two short-handed goals. With dangerous players such as Sebastian Aho, Jake Guentzel and Andrei Svechnikov, that’s tough to do, even if the Rangers have a strong penalty kill.
“It’s quite embarrassing to be minus-1 in the series on the power play,” Martin Necas said.
Skjei’s goal could have been a turning point for Carolina, but the Hurricanes had poor power plays in Game 5, going 0-for-3 and — more concerning — allowing a short-handed goal to Jacob Trouba. If the Rangers continue to limit the Hurricanes’ power play this much, Carolina will have a tough time winning another game, let alone two.
JACOB TROUBA. SHORTHANDED GOAL. RANGERS 1-0. 😱 pic.twitter.com/cMg3gJyO3f
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) May 14, 2024
The referees could shift that, of course, if they call fewer penalties late in the series.
“You just don’t know game to game how it’s going to be called, what’s going to transpire,” Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour said. “I think some (officials) have a tendency to call more stuff, some guys let it play out. But at this stage of the season, these are the top guys and they have a good feel for letting the boys play.”
Advertisem*nt
5. Home ice
The Rangers won their last two games of the regular season to clinch home ice against Carolina. Those victories could make an impact if this series goes seven games. New York was 30-11-0 at home in the regular season.
Reasons a Canes comeback could continue
1. Carolina top line is thriving
The Guentzel-Aho-Svechnikov trio has been arguably the best five-on-five line in the series. In 61:36 of ice time together, the Hurricanes have 65.74 percent of the expected goal share, according to Natural Stat Trick. Carolina leads 3-1 with its top line on the ice, and Aho leads all skaters with seven points in the series.
It hasn’t mattered much which team has last change, either. In Game 5 at the Garden, with Laviolette in control of the matchups, the Aho line out-chanced the Rangers 7-2 and out-attempted the Rangers 15-3. With only those three five-on-five goals to their credit —and just one in the victories in Games 4 and 5 — they could be due for a breakout scoring game —just when Carolina needs it most.
2. Depth charge
The fact that Carolina won both Games 4 and 5 without the Aho line contributing much is an encouraging sign for Brind’Amour. Kuznetsov has scored in consecutive games despite playing fourth-line minutes. Carolina also has goals from bottom-sixers Stefan Noesen and Jordan Staal, along with second-liners Jordan Martinook and Necas (an empty-netter to seal Game 5). Heck, Staal’s game-changing equalizer looked like he turned the clock back to the late 2000s, turning Braden Schneider inside-out and beating Shesterkin with his long reach on the backhand.
With Filip Chytil’s status for Game 6 uncertain, and Matt Rempe perhaps a home-only player in this series, the Rangers can’t quite match Carolina’s depth. If the Hurricanes’ bottom-six keeps contributing, it’ll put even more pressure on New York’s highly skilled top two lines to keep up.
3. Fox not looking quite like himself
Adam Fox has two assists and zero goals through five games and has a minus-4 rating in the series. There are red flags around that, especially considering he took two maintenance days going into the series. He does not look 100 percent. (The Athletic’s Arthur Staple looks more into Fox’s struggles here.)
4. Rangers’ power play is slowing down
New York’s power play started the series on fire, scoring four goals in the first two games. The group was a huge part of the Rangers seizing an early series lead.
Advertisem*nt
Carolina’s penalty kill has given the Rangers trouble since, though. New York hasn’t scored on eight consecutive power plays and has had trouble getting set in the offensive zone against the aggressive Hurricanes.
“When you get the opportunities on the power play, you’ve got to make the most of them,” Laviolette said. “We’ve got to go back and look at how we can get through a little bit better, how we can set up a little bit easier. There was a lot of pressure applied from them through the neutral zone and certainly a lot of pressure applied by them in their defensive zone. … We’re looking to be better in both of those areas.”
5. Is momentum real?
Can the Hurricanes’ good vibes from the third period of Game 5 carry into Game 6? They’ll have a raucous crowd at PNC Arena and will likely come out with a jump in the first period.
“It’s good for hockey,” Kuznetsov said of the upcoming Game 6. “Good for everybody to see these two beautiful teams compete with each other.”
If Carolina takes that game, it only has to win one more. But as the Rangers have seen the past two games, though, that fourth win can be pesky to nail down.
“We know the fourth game’s always the toughest one to win,” Rangers captain Trouba said. “You’ve got to match desperation level. Their season’s on the line. We’ve got to find a way to match that level of intensity and desperation. … We’ve responded well all year to situations with adversity. We lose a couple games, the bounceback has always been there, and that’s a confidence that we’ve built throughout the year. I’m expecting us to go down to Carolina and bring our best.”
(Top photo of Artemi Panarin: Dustin Satloff / Getty Images)
